Inflation is affecting more people than ever, but you don’t have to sit idly by as your expenses keep growing. Runaway inflation took a breather in July, but we’re a long way from being able to declare that the inflation crisis is over. “Combining these factors with tightening monetary policy, we expect inflation to undershoot 2% in 20.” “While consensus has largely given up on the idea that inflation will be transitory, we still think most of the sources of today’s high inflation will abate (and even unwind in impact) over the next few years,” Caldwell says. He expects prices will stay high for the rest of 2022 but will fall dramatically in the next two to three years. economics at Morningstar, has a more granular view.
Action taken by the Federal Reserve, which is targeting a 2% inflation rate by raising interest rates, also makes Triest more optimistic that inflation will come down in the next couple of years.
Like Stein, Robert Triest, department chair and professor of economics at Northeastern University, expects inflation to decrease over the next two years if the COVID-19 pandemic continues to slow down and the Russian war in Ukraine ends. The reasons we’ve seen such high inflation this past year, he adds, is because of clogged-up supply chains from the COVID-19 lockdowns and the invasion of Ukraine. “It still may take a couple of years, but as we see supply chains finish adapting to these new realities and better balance supply with demand, I expect prices will likewise come down,” Stein says. And that means Americans will continue to feel the pain of higher prices for the foreseeable future. However, economists and financial experts do agree on one thing: Higher prices will likely last well into next year, if not longer. Why Inflation and High Prices Will Likely Stick Around a While With so many factors at play - such as the Fed’s interest rate hikes, the strength of the dollar, the war in Ukraine - it’s complicated, to say the least. But the truth is no one can really predict what’s ahead. Prices have begun to decline in some of the most stubborn sectors, such as gas, airfare, and, rental cars, which is a good sign that inflation has peaked. has passed peak inflation remains a big question with no clear answer among economists. So we asked several experts how long the soaring inflation might last and what people can do to mitigate the impact on their finances. And all the while, many Americans are concerned a major recession is already well underway after months of high inflation, and rising interest rates.Įconomists say it’s too early to tell if we are in a true recession, but the technical definition of a recession is of little concern to Americans who continue to deal with soaring prices. We’ll need more than one month of lower-than-expected inflation numbers before the Fed can slow down on further interest rate hikes, experts say. “Even with the likelihood that inflation has peaked, inflation will still remain elevated for some time, as supply chain issues persist and there is still plenty of instability with the Ukraine war, which has caused significant swings in energy prices,” says Zach Stein, chief investment officer at Carbon Collective, an investment advisory firm. Many economists say low unemployment threatens to keep inflation high, which could mean more rate hikes from the Fed could be coming. The most recent jobs report was strong, but this only adds to the complexity. July’s inflation data showed that overall prices were flat, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% - a better report than experts expected, and the slowest rise since March. And experts say it’ll likely be a couple of years before prices really come down from the highs they’ve seen this year. While recent signs suggest the worst may be behind us, inflation is still a major concern for ordinary Americans and the Federal Reserve. If there’s one word that has caught everyone’s attention in 2022, it’s inflation. For more information, see How We Make Money. Some links on this page - clearly marked - may take you to a partner website and may result in us earning a referral commission. We want to help you make more informed decisions.